Newly-upgraded Hurricane Ernesto could end up posing a real problem for us in Charleston. Check out this forecast map — if this holds true, at 8AM Friday we’ll be on the north side of what probably will be a 65 MPH tropical storm. Minimal storm surge and heavy rain FTF. Then again, you never really know sometimes. Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground has an excellent analysis of Ernesto.
UPDATE: The Hurricane Center has downgraded Ernesto to a tropical storm. Also of note, the latest forecast track now calls for a second U.S. landfall at — guess where? Charleston. It’ll be a fairly weak tropical storm at that point, but that doesn’t mean it won’t drop a ton of rain. Also note how much room for error they’re giving the track (the giant swath of highlighted areas) — as with any storm, this definitely isn’t set in stone.