…and not much has changed. Ernesto is still a 45 MPH tropical storm. Tropical storm watches have been extended northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. It’s moving northwest at 13 miles per hour, still steadily. Not much is changing on this front. Charleston is still right in the path of the center of the storm, and now the timing is starting to come into focus a little more clearly, and it does seem that landfall will unfortunately coincide with high tide at 2PM Thursday.
I still anticipate seeing a watch sometime today, possibly as soon as 2PM. Here’s the latest forecast track:
Keep tabs on Ernesto at the National Hurricane Center, and get ready for a lot of rain with some fairly strong winds.
Update: Check out what the 11am forecast discussion says about Ernesto’s intensity at landfall. Reading this suggests that we should still prepare for a Category 1 landfall.
AFTER ERNESTO MOVES FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS (sic) COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
Another update: I can’t believe I forgot this — check out Butterfat’s weather page — it updates automatically and puts all the useful information in one place.
Discussion of New advisory, featuring updated model guidance, is in… is now closed