5am: Track holds, Ernesto still 45 mph

A quickie before I hit the shower, as not much changed overnight. See the obligatory track map:

5AM forecast track of Ernesto.  Courtesy NOAA

  • The 5am advisory doesn’t adjust the track much at all, except it bends it a little more due north after landfall. The point of landfall (northern Charleston County/southern Georgetown County) has not changed.
  • Ernesto is starting to interact heavily with the Florida peninsula. It hasn’t lost any intensity at 5am, but we’ll see what happens with the 8am advisory. It needs to start losing strength soon; remember, the stronger it is when it comes off of Florida, the higher of a chance it has to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane before its second landfall in SC.

Watches and warnings haven’t yet changed but that will most certainly change as we go through the day today. Expect a tropical storm warning during the day, probably by 5PM.

I’ll be back at 9, after class, with a look at how the 8am advisory shapes up.