I was reading Neowin and caught this and had to let out a brief chuckle:
Microsoft is predicting that Windows Vista will be adopted by companies twice as fast as its predecessor, Windows XP.
Twelve months after the release of Vista, Microsoft expects that usage share of the oft-delayed operating system in businesses will be double that of XP a year after it shipped, said Brad Goldberg, general manager for Windows product management at the software maker.
I respond with this: I don’t see any way any sane IT department goes after Windows Vista immediately after release. No matter how whiz-bang great Vista may end up being, the conventional wisdom still applies: Wait for the first service pack. Judging by the feel of the RC1 and post-RC1 builds I’ve tried, it’s not ready yet, and I get the feeling its level of readiness won’t change much between now and the signing off of the final “gold” build. Vista has improved dramatically over the last few months but it’s still nowhere near ready yet. I almost think MS should delay it a couple more months to permit additional feedback from testers and attempt to improve performance further, because it clearly isn’t all there yet (at least in my tests). Keep in mind that I run Vista as my primary operating system at work, and have done so for the last month.
It’s also been my experience that Vista’s has a seriously tough time with legacy software, which many businesses still rely on for their day-to-day operation. In fact I’m willing to bet this is going to be the toughest road for compatibility since the Win 3.x-95 jump. There are a LOT of programs that don’t work, whether it be the new interface, the new security measures, or just the things that seem to break between Windows releases. The investment for Vista is going to go far beyond simple licensing terms — we’re talking serious man-hours of testing, software upgrades, and hardware upgrades. Then, there’s the hours upon hours of retraining some users in the new UI (yes, I believe it has changed enough to where casual users would be completely discombobulated). There’s no way you’re putting Vista on a four-year-old machine with 512 MB of RAM and expect it to run as well as XP, even with Aero Glass disabled. Forget it. Unless a company rolls out a major PC replacement plan in the next year or so, I can’t imagine seeing Windows Vista in the workplace much outside of an IT department giving it a test run (which they should be doing at this point with the public availability of Release Candidate 1).