Every year or so, we get a reminder of just how unpredictable tropical systems can be. Tropical Storm Fay is proving to be that storm. It’s done very little to plan at this point; it surged more westward than expected; came onshore weaker than expected, and now it’s done what is usually unthinkable — it’s strengthened over land.
As of 5:00, Fay’s packing 65 MPH winds and heading north-northeast at 8 MPH. Tropical storm watches extend as far north as the Savannah River now, though it’s worth noting that none of South Carolina has been included as of yet. There’s still a lot of variables involved; model guidance has a bit more consensus on a turn to the west before the South Carolina coast. The official NHC forecast has Fay reintensifying to at least a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall; some models are more aggressive than others on this reintensification, but given the structure of the storm and what it’s done so far on land, I venture to guess that it will be on the upper end of Category 1 before all’s said and done.
Now, it’s not unprecedented for storms to hold their own a bit better over parts of Central Florida than other areas because of the Everglades and associated swampland, but for a storm to actually gain strength and organization — if you look at the radar image above, it’s gaining quite a tight, if not a tad elongated, circulation with a tiny eye feature — that’s something I think nobody expected. It threw the Hurricane Center off, that’s for sure, as they’ve had to realign a lot of their forecasts based on this totally unexpected turn.
One thing that’s been interesting to note is that the models all have it getting slowed down tremendously before shifting back west; what’s key for the Charleston area is how far north it wanders. Any little jump north or south could prove to have a world of difference on our weather. A jump 50 miles north could have significant impacts here. Given its current projection, we may see some outlying bands and cloudiness, but nothing incredibly major. If there’s one thing Fay’s reminded us of, though, is that these things can and do change without notice. The experts have been confounded by this one; with that in mind, I implore you to continue to keep a close eye on things and continue some preparations in case something changes, which Fay has been more than happy to do.
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