Bumpy ride, but I’m at WordPress 2.6.2 now

Had a bit of a wild ride putting WordPress 2.6.2 on jaredwsmith.com this morning, as I suddenly got confronted with the Evil Looping Login of Death, but obviously I got it fixed. (Here’s how.) To prevent this from happening, don’t be a gunslinger like me and pay close heed to the section of the upgrade instructions where they say disable all plugins before running the upgrade

Fall is in the air, but tropical season isn’t over yet…

Something happened last night that hasn’t happened for several months — I felt cold.

Fall is definitely on the approach. While I won’t rule out one last resurgence of warmth in the next few weeks (this typically happens in Charleston, we can’t transition nicely into seasons here at all), we’re entering the second of the two periods of the year where Charleston’s weather is incredibly gorgeous. I’m talking high 70s to low 80s for highs, and low to mid-60s for lows.

While fall is generally more tame than spring severe weather-wise, there can still be elevated levels of severe weather, because the setup is similar to spring: strong cold fronts running into warm air, causing lift and storm formation. Now that we’re seeing fronts again, there could be some decent storms at times.

In the next week, at least, we’ll be keeping some cloudiness around with a chance of showers. There’s a disturbance southwest of here that’s been consistently kicking up some rain on long-range radar.

Hurricane season isn’t over yet: Invest 93L out there

Thankfully, the tropics have been much quieter since Ike roared ashore in Texas. However, a disturbance is trying to get it together in the Atlantic; the Hurricane Center has dubbed this one 93L for now and are watching it for development. As the model spread indicates, there is no shortage of computerized opinion about what this one’s going to do. The HWRF and GFDL models develop it and take it northward; GFDL curves it out to sea, but HWRF seems to keep it hanging around the islands and weakening it. Again, it’s early as heck, and it’s tough to say what will happen. Jeff Masters seems to think that this one will gradually get it together. Again, it’s always worth watching — a tough sell to a hurricane-fatigued populace, for sure.

In the meantime, enjoy the weather out there — it’s pretty gorgeous, if not a bit on the cloudy side.

A Sunday night core dump

I’m sitting here with a terrible case of selective writers’ block. I can write stream of consciousness in the blog all day long — which is what this is — but I’m struggling to write a movie review for my editing class. It’s due Wednesday but this is the only time I really have anything resembling energy for homework, which is surprising considering the emotional rollercoaster the NFL has been for the first two weeks. (I don’t want to say much about Week 2 beyond “the Cardiac Cats are BACK!” and “isn’t robbery illegal in Colorado?”) Continue reading A Sunday night core dump

A glimpse at my calendar

My calendar for September 2008

Yes, I realize this calendar is slightly eccentric. But, if I’m not as socially networked as you or I might like me to be in the next few weeks, particularly the week leading up to the three shot glasses and Hotlanta, please understand.

Also, please note the lack of Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesday is really Super-Monday because that’s my first day of classes for the week; consider regular Monday to be a warmup for Super-Monday, in a way. Wednesday is Hump Day, which is incredibly appropriate given the gigantic hump in the middle of the Average Time of Arrival Home graph below:

Thursday is Pseudo-Friday, because while that’s my last day of classes for the week, I still have an actual Friday at work. Saturday and Sunday are mostly unchanged.

Welcome to my life. Note to the Class of 2012: Finish school expediently. Don’t be me. :)

NFL Week 1 in a nutshell

In case you haven’t heard, all indications are that Tom Brady is done for the year. Last year, the Patriots talked about playing through the adversity of Spygate, etc — but they had all their players remain reasonably intact. The rush of air you feel? The rest of the AFC East breathing a sigh of relief. While the Belichick-era Patriots are resilient, losing their superstar quarterback may be too much. The Patriots are definitely more mortal now, and the division is completely up for grabs now.

Meanwhile, I watched my Chargers and the Panthers tangle to the last second, when a Jake Delhomme miracle throw was caught by Dante Rosario for a game-winning touchdown with no time left. Incredible! I hate seeing the Chargers lose, but losing to the Panthers is the only team I can accept them losing to. The Panthers haven’t looked this good in years. Having Steve Smith out may not necessarily be a bad thing for Delhomme; he spread the ball out to everybody. Delhomme always seems to lean on Smith when he’s in the game. The playcalling was very well-balanced (though going for it on fourth-and-1 on their second drive of the game was foolish), and the defense was as strong as ever.

This game is a gut-check for the Chargers, who need to strongly rethink their policy of leaving players out completely in preseason. Everybody was shaking off rust, and the regular season just isn’t the time for that. One silver lining: Philip Rivers looks as sharp as ever. His mobility was all there — it’s uncanny considering that less than seven months ago he had his ACL reconstructed. The Chargers will bounce back and will be fine; they needed this game to get a few things in check.

Looks to be a fun and wild year ahead; I’m really glad football’s back, especially after such a dismal baseball season.

The final word on Hanna; Ike approaches

Full Path of Hanna, From Genesis to End

After Tropical Storm Hanna gave us some much-needed rain Friday, it turned northeast and hit hyperspeed and has made conditions quite interesting going up the Eastern seaboard, dumping a lot of rain and causing some brief flooding issues from North Carolina up into New Hampshire. It’s lost tropical characteristics now, and the Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory for Hanna, which will go down as a reasonably bizarre, devil of a storm to try to predict.

Despite rumors to the contrary, Hanna actually did have some winds. Francis Shepherd had some videos of some of Hanna’s wind and rain from Deltaville, VA on Saturday morning. While the winds didn’t seem too exceptionally strong in those videos, that’s certainly more than I saw from my humble abode in West Ashley.

Ike Satellite Photo

Hurricane Ike lashed a Hanna-ravaged Turks and Caicos Islands and is going to give the Bahamas quite a ride today before it slams into Cuba, likely maintaining Category 4 strength throughout. Evacuations have been underway in the Florida Keys for the last day or two; first, tourists were asked to leave, and now residents are being evacuated as the Keys are under a hurricane watch. They likely won’t see the brunt of Ike’s fury, but even Category 2 winds can cause severe problems on the Keys.

From there, it’s anybody’s guess where Ike will end up. Here’s the path, which could point it anywhere from south of Texas to just to the west of Pensacola.

Hurricane Ike:  Projected Path, 11am 09/07

The forecast has Ike taking a beating from Cuba, but eventually getting it back together in the Gulf and becoming a Category 3 again. Ike’s got folks along the Gulf Coast worried, and rightfully so; this could be a force to be reckoned with through this week. A lot of the folks I followed for Gustav are watching Ike extremely closely, and making preparations now just in case. While it shouldn’t affect us in the Carolinas, thankfully, we’ll be watching the Gulf Coast closely, hoping folks there get out of harm’s way.

11PM advisory: Lifting northward

Hanna’s starting to lift northward of Charleston. The 11PM fix put it roughly about 60 miles east-southeast of Charleston, and I’m willing to bet it’s pulled even or even slightly north of Charleston now, based on some of the radar I’ve been looking at. The advisory also says that it’s moving north at 20; however, I’m seeing strong indications that the turn to the northeast has begun and is now moving in that direction. Landfall is expected just north of Myrtle Beach within the next few hours.

The advisory canceled the tropical storm warning south of Edisto; I could see this being whittled back even further as time goes on. The Hurricane Watch for our area was also discontinued. There’s a chance Hanna could still become a hurricane — it’s been trying to form an eyewall for the past couple hours, and the pressure is as low as you’ll ever see for a tropical storm — but shear is and dry air are giving it one hell of a fight.

Hanna’s dropped plenty of beneficial rain on the Charleston area. The usual spate of flooding has happened; but this happens whenever it rains normally, much less when a tropical system swings through.

I’ll be interested to hear what comes of the postmortem from Hanna. This has been one heck of a storm for many reasons, whether it be its odd track deviations or its odd strengthening habits. It’s been a great learning experience, as well.

I probably won’t be awake for landfall. Here’s hoping that folks in Myrtle Beach and throughout North Carolina come through alright; I suspect things will be okay, though. This storm’s moving incredibly quickly, so widespread flooding won’t be a major issue, and the winds probably won’t get past Category 1, much less tropical storm force.

For now, this will sign off the advisory-by-advisory posting for the Charleston area for Hanna. I’ve made this official by cracking a beer.

I’ll have a recap of Hanna sometime tomorrow or Sunday; right now, I need rest before coverage ramps up for Ike, which is a damn dangerous, scary, and beautiful storm.

Hanna jogged left

Hanna’s made a very sharp jog to the left which has complicated a lot of things in the forecast. It’s looking more and more that unless the northeast turn happens in the next couple hours from now, landfall will indeed be in northern Charleston County near Awendaw and Bulls Bay. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm as I type this and there is some really interesting data coming back — it looks like the pressure at the center fix is 978 mb. The fix puts the center about 85 miles to the southeast of Charleston. It’s hauling butt, too, and I’m sure that fix is outdated by this writing.

As I write this, a squall associated with the inner core of the storm — which is rapidly regenerating — is coming ashore. The worst may be yet to come…keep tabs in the Charleston Weather broadcast and chat room. Next advisory at 11…