As Hurricane Gustav makes landfall on Louisiana as a Category 2 storm — far weaker than the Category 4 monster that it was two days ago, thankfully, but still an intense hurricane — Tropical Storm Hanna is emerging into some more favorable conditions for strengthening. As of 11am, the winds are 60 MPH (and could be higher, but NHC is staying conservative with intensity fixes at this point). It’s started that west-southwest motion at about 4 to 5 MPH, and is expected to be a hurricane by Wednesday.
The track hasn’t changed, and model guidance is surprisingly confident about the track taking a recurvature into Georgia or South Carolina. The next day or so is critical; it all depends on when and how strongly an area of high pressure builds over Bermuda. There’s still significant uncertainty in the track as a result; again, it’s a wait and see. It’s too early to muse about wobbles or small jumps in track; there’s too much uncertainty to do that and a lot can change from day to day.
Because of the uncertainty, it’s good to start preparation now. NWS Charleston issued a public information statement about 10 minutes ago (as of this writing) imploring the public to begin their preparations for a potential Hanna impact later this week. Take heed!
As a reminder, I’ll be doing an update on Ustream tonight at 8:30 to talk more about Hanna after the 8PM information comes in. The next new track comes at 5PM.
Update: NHC just issued a special advisory: Hanna is now Hurricane Hanna as of 1:30 PM, packing maximum sustained winds of 75 MPH.
Discussion of Hanna at 11am: Strengthening is now closed