Daily Archives: September 28, 2010

A frightening picture of a very unlikely tropical scenario

06z HWRF shows a possible Hurricane Nicole making landfall on Charleston. Probably will not happen.

06z HWRF shows a possible Hurricane Nicole making landfall on Charleston. Probably will not happen. Image via Ryan N. Maue‘s site.

I can’t say I didn’t jump a little when I saw this earlier today. However, it looks very unlikely that a hurricane will make landfall Friday, as the tropical system expected to become Nicole should interact with a front and lose most of its tropical characteristics. It will still be windy, and still be rainy, but it won’t be a 125 mph Category 3 hurricane. This, friends, is what we call an “outlier” in tropical forecast model parlance. :)