Jared W. Smith

Serious Business proper was preempted somewhat tonight by a briefing on Charleston Weather for Tropical Storm Fay. I’m planning on doing a few more videos as the storm gets closer; the interactive sessions on Ustream could be potentially useful as we continue to learn more about what Fay is going to do. Blog posts about Fay will continue and be tagged appropriately.

I recorded tonight’s briefing, and it’s now available online (though it may be outdated by tomorrow morning). read more »

Invest 92L has become Tropical Storm Fay, spinning right over Hispaniola right now tracking to the west at 40 MPH. The current track — which, given the history of this storm, has the potential to be incredibly variable — takes it over Hispaniola and into Cuba, and then out just south of the Keys in the next three days. If it stays over the islands, this is a good thing in terms of strengthening, because the mountains will generally tear the storm apart and prohibit it from becoming too incredibly strong. Indeed, the three-day forecast sees Fay maintaining tropical storm status.

The newest model runs are starting to come in, as well. Most of these, so far at least, agree on a track that recurves it northward into the Gulf of Mexico. This could still be problematic for us if Fay becomes a fairly significant storm; it could bring considerable rain.

However, it’s worth noting that the models just this morning had this thing tracking up the gut into Charleston; it’s still too early to tell. A lot depends on when the northward turn happens. The sooner the turn happens, the higher the probability of rapid strengthening, too. As I say a lot, much akin to a broken record, this is one to watch for the next several days.

It’s fitting that as we approach the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season that we have a potential storm to contend with. Meet Invest 92, a tropical wave meandering northeast of the Leeward Islands chugging along to the west at 12 MPH. It’s really, really still too early to say, but we might be contending with this one in about a week and a half or so. read more »

It’s been a pretty busy July, wouldn’t you say? As the National Hurricane Center stopped advisories today on Bertha, which has been around since July 3, Tropical Storm Dolly sprouted up from a wave in the Caribbean. It skipped the depression phase and just went right to being a tropical storm, which is a bit unusual but it got itself together in a hurry. It’s going to run into the Yucatan and dump a bunch of rain before crossing into the Gulf of Mexico. Slow strengthening is expected…we’ll see what happens.

And as for Cristobal? While it stopped affecting Charleston late last night, it’s now dumping some rain on the Outer Banks. It’s lost a little intensity and isn’t expected to gain much more as it continues to move northeast. NHC is expecting it to accelerate away in the next day or so and lose tropical characteristics.

I definitely get the feeling this is going to be a busier year than we’ve seen in the last couple years. Just gotta stay vigilant…

Tropical Depression Three has just been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal with the 2:00 advisory. It’s moving northeast at 7 MPH and packing minimal tropical storm-force winds of 40 MPH.

The good news for us here in Charleston is that all tropical storm advisories were dropped in the 11am advisory. Tropical Storm Warnings are still up from South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border, which means for a bit of a blustery, wet time for those of you on the Grand Strand and points northward in the next couple days.
Cristobal had been getting it together fairly quickly today over fairly warm water with decent conditions to strengthen, and it’s now pelting some pretty heavy rain on North Carolina (as you can see in the radar image above). Some gradual strengthening is expected, but Cristobal is probably not going to strengthen so rapidly that it becomes a hurricane; it will likely peak at about 55 MPH before being accelerated to the northeast and into unfavorable conditions.

Charleston and surrounding areas will continue to see some light rain on and off, but for this area, this event is quickly coming to a close…yielding to a very HOT day tomorrow, with upper 90s expected inland.

Here’s a radar fix on Tropical Depression Three as of about 9:30 this morning from the Early Branch NEXRAD site (KCLX). It’s fairly close to Charleston, about 65 miles or so southeast of here. Movement is quite slow; drifting north and northeast at an estimated 4, but the radar loop in the last couple hours hasn’t shown much at all. It’s close to tropical storm status with estimated maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

The depression will throw bands of rain onshore; a lot of the heavier rain will be north of here. Showers will continue to be intermittent and short-lived through the day, much as the last couple days have been.

TD 3 has been showing signs of slow, gradual strengthening and could become Tropical Storm Cristobal later today or tonight. We’re not expected to feel tropical-storm force winds in Charleston, though gusts that high are occasionally possible. Charleston is still under a tropical storm watch for this reason, though as the storm continues to drift north and then gradually pick up some steam (as it’s expected to do), those advisories will be lifted.

For more, keep an eye on Hurricane Local Statements as issued by National Weather Service field offices. Charleston’s field office is issuing reports specific to Charleston with each advisory.

Invest 96 has been classified as Tropical Depression Three as of 11:00. The center of the storm is roughly 65 miles from Charleston. The advisory classifying the tropical depression also initiated a tropical storm watch for the Charleston coastline (from Edisto to South Santee). A tropical storm warning was raised from South Santee up through the Grand Strand. While National Hurricane Center forecasters do not foresee rapid strengthening, this is a storm still worth watching considering where it is. The track currently takes the storm straddling the coast; however, in the absence of strong steering currents, there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast right now.

While TD 3 won’t kick up too terribly much wind, it’s a good reminder to make sure you’re prepared in case something comes along that does kick up a lot of wind.

I’ll try to have more tomorrow morning in the form of another video blog on Charleston Weather. In the meantime, it’s time for bed…

Good ol’ Invest 96 is starting to tighten up and begin to show good convection around a reformed center, which means it’s pretty likely a depression could be getting its act together there in short order (say, within the next day or so). I just wrapped a quick webcast about 96’s current state and its future. (Excuse the technical difficulties; I need a camera operator!)

Update - The Hurricane Center just released this little ditty on 96 (more here):

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE…ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM THIS EVENING.

As they say…”More at 11…”

There’s a low pressure system spinning off the coast of Florida that’s been giving us a really nice northeasterly flow for the last couple days. It’s spun some isolated, short-lived showers onto the coast, too. It’s got quite a well-defined circulation, and I got several e-mails today asking me why the Hurricane Center hadn’t classified it as an area for investigation (aka an Invest). Well, folks, it is now — the Hurricane Center’s tabbed it as Invest 96. It’s not terribly well-organized considering proximity to land, but the blowup of convection on the eastern side of the storm and the environment it’s in warrant an extra eye from the Hurricane Center. The models don’t seem to give it much of a chance to get it together, but it’s early yet and it’s worth watching. It could spin up into a depression in the next few days. It will probably bring beneficial rains to the coast and a little wind, but not much else. In the meantime, despite the intermittent showers it spins onshore, it’s done a lot to keep temperatures much more bearable than normal for July. There’s little haze, and the clouds have been really vivid and hauling butt, making for some fun sky-watching and photography (which I will upload to Flickr once I get a decent set).

More to come from this as things develop.