Say hi to Ana and Bill. Ana’s got a shot at a South Florida landfall on Thursday, while Bill’s a bit too far out to call, though the early model guidance is encouraging for a recurvature before it hits the U.S. Time will tell — and these things are notorious for being unpredictable.

I’ll be doing periodic updates on the Charleston Weather blog as we learn more about the storms’ implications for our weather. TheDigitel’s hurricane page is a good place to monitor as well, and if you’re into maps and data and more maps and more data, I must recommend SCHurricane.com (@schurricane on Twitter) by the good guys at WCBD News 2. It’s pretty much every relevant map conveniently linked in one place.

So, stay tuned. It wasn’t going to stay docile out there forever.

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I recorded tonight’s briefing, and it’s now available online (though it may be outdated by tomorrow morning). Take a look:

The post Tonight’s Fay Briefing appeared first on Jared W. Smith.

The newest model runs are starting to come in, as well. Most of these, so far at least, agree on a track that recurves it northward into the Gulf of Mexico. This could still be problematic for us if Fay becomes a fairly significant storm; it could bring considerable rain.

However, it’s worth noting that the models just this morning had this thing tracking up the gut into Charleston; it’s still too early to tell. A lot depends on when the northward turn happens. The sooner the turn happens, the higher the probability of rapid strengthening, too. As I say a lot, much akin to a broken record, this is one to watch for the next several days.

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So why do I think this storm is so interesting? Let’s let the model runs (from Jonathan Vigh’s excellent site) tell the story.

You’ll see that roughly half the computer models have the storm making a fairly abrupt turn northward toward the end of the forecast period, and the other half keep it on a west-northwest track into Florida. I need to reiterate how early it is, and that computer model forecasts can vary wildly from day to day, and just how much variability is involved here (hell, I’m even tagging this post “speculation”), but when I see decent agreement on something making a sharp turn to the north like this storm does, it perks me up a bit.

Things are looking pretty solid for storm formation, too. The Hurricane Center has this to say about the disturbance:

…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH OR JUST NORTH
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

As I say time and time again with these hurricane posts, it’s never too early to be prepared. This one’s a week and a half out or so (if forward speed and direction remain constant), but it’s not a bad idea to check on your hurricane supplies and maybe pick up a couple jugs of water ahead of time. You just don’t know with these things.

The post Invest 92L: A tropical wave for us to watch closely appeared first on Jared W. Smith.

And as for Cristobal? While it stopped affecting Charleston late last night, it’s now dumping some rain on the Outer Banks. It’s lost a little intensity and isn’t expected to gain much more as it continues to move northeast. NHC is expecting it to accelerate away in the next day or so and lose tropical characteristics.

I definitely get the feeling this is going to be a busier year than we’ve seen in the last couple years. Just gotta stay vigilant…

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Tropical Depression Three has just been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal with the 2:00 advisory. It’s moving northeast at 7 MPH and packing minimal tropical storm-force winds of 40 MPH.

The good news for us here in Charleston is that all tropical storm advisories were dropped in the 11am advisory. Tropical Storm Warnings are still up from South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border, which means for a bit of a blustery, wet time for those of you on the Grand Strand and points northward in the next couple days.
Cristobal had been getting it together fairly quickly today over fairly warm water with decent conditions to strengthen, and it’s now pelting some pretty heavy rain on North Carolina (as you can see in the radar image above). Some gradual strengthening is expected, but Cristobal is probably not going to strengthen so rapidly that it becomes a hurricane; it will likely peak at about 55 MPH before being accelerated to the northeast and into unfavorable conditions.

Charleston and surrounding areas will continue to see some light rain on and off, but for this area, this event is quickly coming to a close…yielding to a very HOT day tomorrow, with upper 90s expected inland.

The post Cristobal has formed appeared first on Jared W. Smith.

Here’s a radar fix on Tropical Depression Three as of about 9:30 this morning from the Early Branch NEXRAD site (KCLX). It’s fairly close to Charleston, about 65 miles or so southeast of here. Movement is quite slow; drifting north and northeast at an estimated 4, but the radar loop in the last couple hours hasn’t shown much at all. It’s close to tropical storm status with estimated maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

The depression will throw bands of rain onshore; a lot of the heavier rain will be north of here. Showers will continue to be intermittent and short-lived through the day, much as the last couple days have been.

TD 3 has been showing signs of slow, gradual strengthening and could become Tropical Storm Cristobal later today or tonight. We’re not expected to feel tropical-storm force winds in Charleston, though gusts that high are occasionally possible. Charleston is still under a tropical storm watch for this reason, though as the storm continues to drift north and then gradually pick up some steam (as it’s expected to do), those advisories will be lifted.

For more, keep an eye on Hurricane Local Statements as issued by National Weather Service field offices. Charleston’s field office is issuing reports specific to Charleston with each advisory.

The post TD 3: Knocking on the door of Cristobal? appeared first on Jared W. Smith.

While TD 3 won’t kick up too terribly much wind, it’s a good reminder to make sure you’re prepared in case something comes along that does kick up a lot of wind.

I’ll try to have more tomorrow morning in the form of another video blog on Charleston Weather. In the meantime, it’s time for bed…

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Good ol’ Invest 96 is starting to tighten up and begin to show good convection around a reformed center, which means it’s pretty likely a depression could be getting its act together there in short order (say, within the next day or so). I just wrapped a quick webcast about 96′s current state and its future. (Excuse the technical difficulties; I need a camera operator!)

Update – The Hurricane Center just released this little ditty on 96 (more here):

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE…ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM THIS EVENING.

As they say…”More at 11…”

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