06z HWRF shows a possible Hurricane Nicole making landfall on Charleston. Probably will not happen. Image via Ryan N. Maue‘s site.

I can’t say I didn’t jump a little when I saw this earlier today. However, it looks very unlikely that a hurricane will make landfall Friday, as the tropical system expected to become Nicole should interact with a front and lose most of its tropical characteristics. It will still be windy, and still be rainy, but it won’t be a 125 mph Category 3 hurricane. This, friends, is what we call an “outlier” in tropical forecast model parlance. :)

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Invest 96, which may become Earl later this week. Courtesy NHC.

The Cape Verde train is getting rolling. Hurricane Danielle is all the rage in the Atlantic (and rightly so), but Invest 96, which may become Tropical Storm Earl in the next couple days, is another one to watch, especially if it develops slowly and misses a weakness in high pressure which is the driver that should steer Danielle out to sea. It’s obviously too early to tell where it will go, but as with any Cape Verde storm, it’s one to keep a close eye on.

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Invest 96 (July 2010) 2PM model run (via Weather Underground). What does THIS look like?

If these model runs are any indication (and they should not be taken as gospel), it looks like Bonnie will just be another Alex retread (at least in terms of path; intensity is very hard to tell but it doesn’t look like it will have nearly the time to get it together as Alex did). More rain for south Texas and central Mexico looks inevitable. Pretty sure they’re still drying out from Alex down there.

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Tropical Weather Outlook, July 4, 2010 at 8PM, via the National Hurricane Center.

Nothing like checking the BlackBerry and seeing not one, not two, but four areas of potential tropical development in the Atlantic. While the storm in the Caribbean (#2 on the map above) has the best shot at developing soon, the storm near the Lesser Antilles (storm 4) could see some slow development over the next few days and might be worth watching. Read tonight’s Tropical Weather Outlook for more. They said it was going to be a busy year — I suspect we’ll see a lot of outlooks like these over the next few months.

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Tropical Depression Three has just been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal with the 2:00 advisory. It’s moving northeast at 7 MPH and packing minimal tropical storm-force winds of 40 MPH.

The good news for us here in Charleston is that all tropical storm advisories were dropped in the 11am advisory. Tropical Storm Warnings are still up from South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border, which means for a bit of a blustery, wet time for those of you on the Grand Strand and points northward in the next couple days.
Cristobal had been getting it together fairly quickly today over fairly warm water with decent conditions to strengthen, and it’s now pelting some pretty heavy rain on North Carolina (as you can see in the radar image above). Some gradual strengthening is expected, but Cristobal is probably not going to strengthen so rapidly that it becomes a hurricane; it will likely peak at about 55 MPH before being accelerated to the northeast and into unfavorable conditions.

Charleston and surrounding areas will continue to see some light rain on and off, but for this area, this event is quickly coming to a close…yielding to a very HOT day tomorrow, with upper 90s expected inland.

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Here’s a radar fix on Tropical Depression Three as of about 9:30 this morning from the Early Branch NEXRAD site (KCLX). It’s fairly close to Charleston, about 65 miles or so southeast of here. Movement is quite slow; drifting north and northeast at an estimated 4, but the radar loop in the last couple hours hasn’t shown much at all. It’s close to tropical storm status with estimated maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

The depression will throw bands of rain onshore; a lot of the heavier rain will be north of here. Showers will continue to be intermittent and short-lived through the day, much as the last couple days have been.

TD 3 has been showing signs of slow, gradual strengthening and could become Tropical Storm Cristobal later today or tonight. We’re not expected to feel tropical-storm force winds in Charleston, though gusts that high are occasionally possible. Charleston is still under a tropical storm watch for this reason, though as the storm continues to drift north and then gradually pick up some steam (as it’s expected to do), those advisories will be lifted.

For more, keep an eye on Hurricane Local Statements as issued by National Weather Service field offices. Charleston’s field office is issuing reports specific to Charleston with each advisory.

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While TD 3 won’t kick up too terribly much wind, it’s a good reminder to make sure you’re prepared in case something comes along that does kick up a lot of wind.

I’ll try to have more tomorrow morning in the form of another video blog on Charleston Weather. In the meantime, it’s time for bed…

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Good ol’ Invest 96 is starting to tighten up and begin to show good convection around a reformed center, which means it’s pretty likely a depression could be getting its act together there in short order (say, within the next day or so). I just wrapped a quick webcast about 96′s current state and its future. (Excuse the technical difficulties; I need a camera operator!)

Update – The Hurricane Center just released this little ditty on 96 (more here):

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE…ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM THIS EVENING.

As they say…”More at 11…”

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The post A rough Invest 96 update appeared first on Jared W. Smith.

There’s a low pressure system spinning off the coast of Florida that’s been giving us a really nice northeasterly flow for the last couple days. It’s spun some isolated, short-lived showers onto the coast, too. It’s got quite a well-defined circulation, and I got several e-mails today asking me why the Hurricane Center hadn’t classified it as an area for investigation (aka an Invest). Well, folks, it is now — the Hurricane Center’s tabbed it as Invest 96. It’s not terribly well-organized considering proximity to land, but the blowup of convection on the eastern side of the storm and the environment it’s in warrant an extra eye from the Hurricane Center. The models don’t seem to give it much of a chance to get it together, but it’s early yet and it’s worth watching. It could spin up into a depression in the next few days. It will probably bring beneficial rains to the coast and a little wind, but not much else. In the meantime, despite the intermittent showers it spins onshore, it’s done a lot to keep temperatures much more bearable than normal for July. There’s little haze, and the clouds have been really vivid and hauling butt, making for some fun sky-watching and photography (which I will upload to Flickr once I get a decent set).

More to come from this as things develop.

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