Florence seems to be content

Tropical Storm Florence hasn’t changed much over the last couple days, remaining as a 50 MPH tropical storm as it battles wind shear and other factors inhibiting it. As the discussion states, predicting Florence’s intensity is going to be a mighty tough endeavor, and there’s a lot of uncertainty. Strengthening to a hurricane is still built into the forecast, though.

Here’s the map:

flotrack.gif

Note that Bermuda may be in big trouble with this current track, as it passes the center just to the left of the island, putting it squarely in the path of the worst part of the storm. Just how bad the worst part of the storm is remains to be seen, but as evidenced by the map they are still expecting a hurricane of varying intensity at the time of Bermuda landfall.

A quick check on ol’ Flo…

Florence hasn’t done much in the last 12 hours or so. Winds are hanging tough at 45 MPH, and it’s continuing that west-northwest movement.

While there is a cubic crap-ton of uncertainty still with the track of this storm, the official forecast is favoring a recurvature out to sea, which is good news:

Latest Florence track as of 5am Sept. 6

A look at the computer models is definitely encouraging, with all of them turning Florence poleward in the next several days. Bermuda may catch a little bit of heat, but we’ll see.

As always, keep an eye on the Hurricane Center. The next advisory and track is out at 11.

Why, hello Florence…

Introducing Florence…

florencehenderson.png

No, not THAT Florence…Tropical Storm Florence, the former Tropical Depression Six. From the discussion:

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY
LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS
BASED ON WIND DATA FROM 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT AND 05/1002 SSMI
OVERPASSES THAT REVEALED LARGE PATCHES OF 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER
WINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT…BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS.

Here’s the obligatory tracking map:

florenceguidance.gif

So far it seems to be zeroed in…right to Charleston. But, the bend at the end of the track is encouraging, as that could indicate a recurvature. However, it’s still too far out to start any real panic. Just be sure to keep an eye on it. :)

Say hello to Tropical Depression #6

Tropical Depression 6 formed today at around 5PM. From the Hurricane Center:

…DEPRESSION FAR OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC…

AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1395
MILES…2245 KM…EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
MONDAY.

Here’s the map, which at first glance appears fairly ominous for the East Coast…

Tropical Depression 6, 11PM advisory

This one definitely bears watching, but it’s important to note the amount of variance there is in the track, and that it’s very early in the game and a lot can and probably will change. The forecast discussion takes it to being about an 85 MPH hurricane in three or four days or so. While the sea surface temperatures will not be inhibiting to development, the moderate shear in the atmosphere is expected to keep the lid on this one blossoming, at least for the foreseeable future. I, personally, wouldn’t rule out this becoming a fairly potent hurricane in the coming days. We all should keep an eye on it — as I’m sure you all have come to expect, I most certainly will…;)