The 11 PM advisory is coming in right now. The forecast track hasn’t changed much except for the following:
- Intensity has weakened all around, and Ernesto is now expected to make landfall as a strong tropical storm, but not a Category 1 hurricane. (Update: Rob Fowler has fleshed out the intensity a little bit more — it’s going to be a 70 MPH tropical storm. Not quite hurricane status but 70 MPH winds are nothing to thumb your nose at. Also of note is that News 2’s VIPIR suggests a more westerly track than what the NHC is providing.)
- Ernesto’s Charleston landfall has been pushed out just about six hours later, to just before 8PM on Thursday.
Here’s the new forecast track:
Ernesto is still a tropical storm with 40 MPH winds. It seems to be starting to emerge slightly now — we’ll see what happens. Tomorrow will be a very telling day, but for now, I must rest.