11 PM advisory is in

The 11 PM advisory is coming in right now. The forecast track hasn’t changed much except for the following:

  • Intensity has weakened all around, and Ernesto is now expected to make landfall as a strong tropical storm, but not a Category 1 hurricane. (Update: Rob Fowler has fleshed out the intensity a little bit more — it’s going to be a 70 MPH tropical storm. Not quite hurricane status but 70 MPH winds are nothing to thumb your nose at. Also of note is that News 2’s VIPIR suggests a more westerly track than what the NHC is providing.)
  • Ernesto’s Charleston landfall has been pushed out just about six hours later, to just before 8PM on Thursday.

Here’s the new forecast track:

11 PM Ernesto advisory, courtesy NOAA

Ernesto is still a tropical storm with 40 MPH winds. It seems to be starting to emerge slightly now — we’ll see what happens. Tomorrow will be a very telling day, but for now, I must rest.

4 thoughts on “11 PM advisory is in

  1. Heather

    I was kind of hoping for a daylight landfall. Although it will be nice to not have to worry about my husband being stuck out at the plant. He works out in Huger and takes the back roads home. I am watching this one carefully. (We lose power easily, so it doesn’t take a huge storm to become a large annoyance.)

  2. Heather

    I was kind of hoping for a daylight landfall. Although it will be nice to not have to worry about my husband being stuck out at the plant. He works out in Huger and takes the back roads home. I am watching this one carefully. (We lose power easily, so it doesn’t take a huge storm to become a large annoyance.)

  3. Jared Smith

    We may still get that daylight landfall yet — the timing is still uncertain, and the latest track brings it back to a daytime landfall.

  4. Jared Smith

    We may still get that daylight landfall yet — the timing is still uncertain, and the latest track brings it back to a daytime landfall.

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