11PM: Big, big shift in track — great news for us

The 11 PM advisory is in, and we see the first big shift in the track in the last 36 hours. The picture tells the story:

11PM forecast track for T.S. Ernesto, courtesy NOAA.

You will undoubtedly notice that Charleston is no longer ground zero for landfall. The projected landfall point has shifted quite northward to the Georgetown area. While the center of the storm will still pass extremely close to Charleston area, this latest track indicates that we will be on the weaker left side of the storm. This will dramatically lower the effects of high tide and other potential surge issues. Also, tornadoes will be far less likely with this new track.

It’s good news for Charleston, but not so much for about Georgetown northward. I and everyone in the Lowcountry certainly hope that the power of the fabled Hurricane Cookies continues to shift this projection more to the right.

Watches for our area have not changed just yet. I anticipate a tropical storm warning by 11am tomorrow as the storm continues to approach. I reiterate that hurricane tracking is an inexact science and this could just as easily shift back to here. I’m waiting for the Hurricane Center to post the latest forecast discussion so I can further analyze their thinking behind this.

Please continue to pay attention to the local media outlets for more information about evacuations, etc.

4 thoughts on “11PM: Big, big shift in track — great news for us

  1. the_duke

    You know.. of all the internet sites, and all the tv stations, this is the best place to get a reliable, informative view on whats going on… yes yes its local, but still I love it =)

    Keep up the good work

  2. the_duke

    You know.. of all the internet sites, and all the tv stations, this is the best place to get a reliable, informative view on whats going on… yes yes its local, but still I love it =)

    Keep up the good work

  3. Jared Smith

    Thanks man…glad I’m out there helping a few people at least. It’s a lot of fun and a great test of my analytical skills.

    Now that the advisory’s come out it’s time for homework. Hehe.

  4. Jared Smith

    Thanks man…glad I’m out there helping a few people at least. It’s a lot of fun and a great test of my analytical skills.

    Now that the advisory’s come out it’s time for homework. Hehe.

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