Invest 92L: A tropical wave for us to watch closely

It’s fitting that as we approach the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season that we have a potential storm to contend with. Meet Invest 92, a tropical wave meandering northeast of the Leeward Islands chugging along to the west at 12 MPH. It’s really, really still too early to say, but we might be contending with this one in about a week and a half or so.

So why do I think this storm is so interesting? Let’s let the model runs (from Jonathan Vigh’s excellent site) tell the story.

You’ll see that roughly half the computer models have the storm making a fairly abrupt turn northward toward the end of the forecast period, and the other half keep it on a west-northwest track into Florida. I need to reiterate how early it is, and that computer model forecasts can vary wildly from day to day, and just how much variability is involved here (hell, I’m even tagging this post “speculation”), but when I see decent agreement on something making a sharp turn to the north like this storm does, it perks me up a bit.

Things are looking pretty solid for storm formation, too. The Hurricane Center has this to say about the disturbance:

…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH OR JUST NORTH
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

As I say time and time again with these hurricane posts, it’s never too early to be prepared. This one’s a week and a half out or so (if forward speed and direction remain constant), but it’s not a bad idea to check on your hurricane supplies and maybe pick up a couple jugs of water ahead of time. You just don’t know with these things.