Hanna trending rightward

The 11PM advisory is out on Hanna. She’s holding steady at 80 MPH; pressure’s down a couple millibars to 978, and this storm is very, very stationary, causing a lot of problems on the Turks and Caicos with the potential for deadly mudslides due to the copious amounts of rain being dumped on the area.

Hanna Forecast Track, 11PM 09/01

The forecast track has shifted eastward and now predicts a landfall Friday afternoon around the Charleston metro or just a teeny bit north. I must reiterate that this scenario is very uncertain and could all change by the time we wake up tomorrow morning.

I’ve noticed this eastward trend progressing throughout the day; this morning, landfall was projected south of Savannah; at 5PM, landfall was shifted to the border with a hard turn right up through the gut of SC; now, another eastward shift takes it into Charleston. This is a curious development; I’ll get into that in a moment. First, here’s some explanation from the NHC discussion (links to models added by me, where appropriate):

AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS…A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR HANNA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET…THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY WELL
CLUSTERED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
GFSGFDL…AND HWRF.

Here are the latest spaghetti plots for those of you who are into meteorological pasta:

Hanna Models -- Overview -- 11PM 09/01

And a close-in view of the plots as they cross over Charleston:

Hanna Model Plots - Close In on Charleston

I do find it interesting that they’re leaning on the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF so much; as the spaghetti indicates, there’s still plenty of support for the more leftward solution. It probably has to do with the reliability of GFDL lately, and the fact that GFS trended more leftward to match up with it; but this is still an interesting development. The morning runs will be good to watch to see if more things come into alignment with this rightward track. Again, the cone of uncertainty is quite wide, and it’s still important for everyone from Miami to Norfolk to keep close tabs on this one.

More in the morning…