Tag Archives: 11am advisory

11am: Track shifts eastward

The 11am advisory is out and shifts the track of Hanna eastward toward a landfall in Georgetown and Myrtle Beach. This is in line with the tropical models I discussed in the previous post, which had shifted significantly rightward. The NHC doesn’t commit as much to the right turn as the models do but this is fairly huge for Charleston. It remains to be seen whether this will stick, though.

Hanna also appears to be making the turn to the north and northwest; once motion resumes, we’ll have a better idea of what’s happening. It’s still too early to judge exact landfall points.

Winds are still 60 MPH; pressure’s at 997 millibars. The NHC noted in the public advisory Hanna’s size; tropical storm force winds now extend almost 300 miles north of the center. It’s expected to organize a bit more as the day goes on and should strengthen back to a hurricane sometime tomorrow. Keep an eye out, and there will be more at 2…

11AM: 60 MPH Ernesto

Ernesto is now a 60 MPH tropical storm moving north-northeast at 15 MPH. They are once again leaving the possibility open for the storm to strengthen into a hurricane, and have posted hurricane watches from South Santee River northward to Cape Lookout.

The track takes the center right over the North and South Carolina border. One thing worth noting is that Charleston is removed from the cone of uncertainty as a landfall point. This is generally a Good Thing. Here’s the map:

11am0831.gif

I’m going to keep an eye on the radar though — it seems like there was a recent wobble to the left, but it’s tough to tell sometimes.

Sorry about the slowness. Please be patient. If things get too much slower here, please view http://jaredwsmith.wordpress.com — I’m kind of glad I got that account now. That will work as a good “backup blog” so to speak.

11am: Tropical Storm Warning, Ernesto a depression

As of 11am, the news is quite good, despite the tropical storm warning being issued for Charleston. The hurricane watch for the S.C. coast has been dropped, indicating less and less of a likelihood that Ernesto will gather much meaningful strength before it reaches the Carolina coast. I don’t believe the Hurricane Center would drop a watch unless they had good information and more confidence in the intensity forecast. The storm continues to lose strength as it sits over Florida, and has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression as a result.

11am advisory August 30 for Ernesto.  Courtesy NOAA

We’ll start to see some isolated storms in association with Ernesto in the next few hours, and things will steadily decline — tomorrow will no doubt be a nasty day laced with a lot of flooding around the Charleston area due to all the heavy rain. It’s still good to get prepared but this, thankfully, is looking more and more like a non-event. This won’t stop me from blogging the whole thing though, as only a diehard could do. Notoriously Nice Mike will be doing the same. :)

New advisory, featuring updated model guidance, is in…

…and not much has changed. Ernesto is still a 45 MPH tropical storm. Tropical storm watches have been extended northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. It’s moving northwest at 13 miles per hour, still steadily. Not much is changing on this front. Charleston is still right in the path of the center of the storm, and now the timing is starting to come into focus a little more clearly, and it does seem that landfall will unfortunately coincide with high tide at 2PM Thursday.

I still anticipate seeing a watch sometime today, possibly as soon as 2PM. Here’s the latest forecast track:

Ernesto 11am position, forecast track, and watches, courtesy NOAA

Keep tabs on Ernesto at the National Hurricane Center, and get ready for a lot of rain with some fairly strong winds.

Update: Check out what the 11am forecast discussion says about Ernesto’s intensity at landfall. Reading this suggests that we should still prepare for a Category 1 landfall.

AFTER ERNESTO MOVES FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS (sic) COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

Another update: I can’t believe I forgot this — check out Butterfat’s weather page — it updates automatically and puts all the useful information in one place.