Here’s the 8am model runs. Note the increasing amount of divergence ahead of Hanna’s landfall. There’s still reasonably strong agreement for the Horry County landfall scenario, but I would not be surprised to see the track jog west a bit more before it’s all said and done.
The 8:00 advisory slows Hanna’s forward motion down ever so slightly (to 18 MPH instead of 20). It’s still headed northwest. Winds are still 65 MPH, but the pressure is down a bit more. Satellite imagery is indicating that the shear has backed off some; note the gigantic plume of convection trying to wrap itself around the center. A hurricane at landfall is reemerging as a possibility.
In a temporary reprieve, the 8am advisory downgraded Hanna to a tropical storm. This isn’t all too unexpected; any storm that stays over the same area for a long period of time eventually churns up cooler water and can be affected by it somewhat, so I have a feeling that’s what’s happened here. Additionally, Hanna’s satellite appearance suggests it’s being affected by some wicked shear, particularly in its northwest quadrant. The combination of the two may prove to weaken it a little further; however, it’s too early to say if this will impact intensity at landfall. See you around noon (I’m unavailable at 11 when the new advisory is out).
The 8AM advisory is reporting that Ernesto’s gotten a bit stronger. Winds are now 55 MPH, and the central pressure has dropped to 29.41″ of mercury. All indicators are that it continues to get better organized and gain a little more strength as it prepares for landfall. The official movement is to the north at 15 MPH, but there have been small jogs to the east that have thrown the track to the right all morning. The center now sits about 170 miles south of Charleston.
It’s still a bit windy and rainy around here, but my street isn’t even underwater yet — that’s generally a good thing. I’m gonna step outside in a few to take an updated cloud observation, but the rain hasn’t been that bad at all through the whole storm so far. This will change, I’m sure, but so far so good.
I’m watching the Live 5 FutureTracker, and it seems their model still takes the center very close to Charleston. Interesting…
I’m fresh out of class, in the Stern Center pining for a chicken biscuit, and I just got a chance to get a look at the 8am advisory on Ernesto. As expected, the interaction with the land has weakened the storm slightly, and this is forecast to continue. The storm’s maximum sustained winds are now 40 MPH and will probably drop to about 35 or so (which would send it to tropical depression status) before it reemerges over the Atlantic later tonight.
By all accounts, Florida has really dodged a bullet, as the last I heard damage was extremely minimal and that they’re just getting a ton of rain.
Ernesto’s started to make a bit of the turn forecasters have expected, as the storm is now headed more northward than northwestward, at about 8 miles per hour.
That’s about it from here. We’ll see what happens when the full advisory is published at 11am, which will contain the updated forecast track and all that fun stuff. Continue your preparations!
Update: Charleston County EOC has moved to OPCON 2, a fancy term for “disaster imminent.” No, it’s not as dire as it sounds. Consider it preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best.
ABC News 4’s Brian Goode has some…erm…goode observations (haha) on Ernesto, from a real forecaster’s perspective.
See you guys close to noon, as I’ll be out of class then.