Tag Archives: Ernesto

Friday, I’m in love…

Wow, it’s almost 9:30 AM and the temperature isn’t already 80. That’s fantastic. They’re forecasting upper 80s today, which is better than it has been, under some passing clouds. That’ll be a nice contrast to yesterday. ;)

The instructor of my 8am class polled the class about how they spent their day off from Ernesto. I was, predictably, one of two people to wake up early, and was most certainly the only person to live-blog it. This, of course, comes as no surprise. Interestingly, no one fessed up to watching the Weather Channel. There were certainly a lot of movies watched yesterday. A few people played in the rain. I’m surprised that people gasped when I told them I took pictures, actually.

Speaking of Ernesto, it made landfall at Long Beach, NC last night as a 70 MPH tropical storm. However, as twc_aficionados moderator cieldumort states, it will probably be upgraded posthumously to a Category 1 hurricane, much like Gaston was in 2004. I tend to believe him there, as the storm was forming an eye-like feature just before landfall.

Weather news aside, I definitely love the fact that it’s Friday. I’m getting my car back tonight, and then I do believe it will be time for a little…erm…disorder later. I say that now, but the reality of the situation will likely be that I reinstall my critical apps in Windows Vista tonight, where I will do my best to make it my primary OS so I can really see if I’ll like it or not. It most certainly would be a cheaper activity than going out, getting smashed, and looking at girls I could never muster the courage to talk to. :)

Stuff and things…

I think this post will be one of those miscellaneous “stuff and things” posts that touches on Ernesto and a number of other topics. Do notice that I’ve taken all the special storm links and the “tropical storm warning” bar down.

Ernesto

I just took a look outside and my section of Ashley Ave. continues to become more in the way of asphalt, but it’s still underwater and thus will continue to be barricaded. The winds have died off considerably but some light rain showers are still coming down. My barometer is beginning to rebound, though, and that’s a good thing. Looking at some of the satellite and radar imagery on the news tonight, it seems Ernesto’s pulling together an eye feature. I personally think that it will make Cat 1 before it makes landfall; the way it’s gotten itself together in the last 12 hours or so has been pretty impressive and i just don’t see the storm’s reorganization stopping until the center hits land.

Regular reader and commenter NotMyBest2Day compiled this animated GIF image of pretty much an entire day of Ernesto making landfall as seen through the Early Branch NEXRAD. It’s pretty awesome, and shows just how fast the storm came in and left. Dialup warning: It’s a 4MB+ file, so it may take a while to load if you’re on a narrowband connection. Worth the wait though, especially if watching long time lapse radar images is your thing.

Wells to the Padres…for a top prospect

ESPN broke the news about 20 or so minutes ago: David Wells has been traded to the Padres for an unknown quantity at this time, though we all pretty much know the Sox got highly rated prospect George Kottaras, who has a solid defensive reputation. The Sox need serious help with catching. I like Wells, especially since he’s put together a nice string of quality starts, but I don’t like giving away a top prospect for what could amount to a one month (we hope longer) rental. Wells is expected to retire after the season’s over. Let’s hope he can put San Diego over the top. It was mentioned on SportsCenter that he could fit between Jake Peavy and Chris Young in the rotation, and I like that idea.

The Gamecocks open their season tonight at Mississippi State. I know Mel’s freaking STOKED.

The Panthers play the Steelers tonight in their final preseason contest at Heinz Field. This is going to be a nice test for Carolina, especially since the Steelers travel to Carolina for what could be a very pivotal Week 15 game for both teams. In fact, that game is starting right now. I better hop to watching it in a second.

Computer Things

I saw on Slashdot that Firefox 2 Beta 2 is available. While there hasn’t been any public announcement yet, it was found on an FTP server. I grabbed it and installed it. I like it, but the theme needs a TON of work. before I can give it my 100% stamp of approval. One thing I adore: There’s a new dropdown on the far right edge of the tab bar, which lists all the tabs out for easy reach. It’s a great feature. I would like to see someone try and do an extension that mimic’s IE 7’s Quick Tabs thumbnailing feature, but I suspect this method will end up being a quicker, more efficient method, especially for large numbers of tabs.

Also, I plan on installing Vista 5536 sometime soon, maybe as early as tonight. I’m going to attempt an upgrade over Beta 2. Hopefully I don’t hose XP, otherwise I’d be in real, real trouble — guess we’ll see what happens.

I may make a post after the 8PM advisory on Ernesto. We’ll see…I’m looking forward to a restful evening of Carolina Panther football.

Later folks.

J

Ashley Ave. shut down

Police have just shut down Ashley Ave. I’ve got some great pictures. It appears the Calhoun and Ashley intersection is also flooding. More soon…

We’ve gotten .71″ of rain in the last hour, and that number continues to rise. High tide is in 20 minutes.

UPDATE — a flash flood warning has just been issued for Downtown and surrounding areas.

UPDATE 2 — Just got back from my swim on my street…take a look.

Underwater up to the sidewalk...I'd say probably three or four inches of standing water, easy.  It was worse Thursday.Is this seat taken?Corner of Calhoun and Ashley.Barricade fell over due to the water...

The peak rainfall was 1.18″ an hour, and that came just 20 minutes before high tide. Radar estimates that the peninsula didn’t get it as badly as Folly did, though:

Radar estimated one-hour totals.

And I leave with this note, that requires no explanation except that it is frickin’ WET out there…

"He's just a washed up one-hit wonder computer geek..."

Now to read the 2PM advisory, which is looking pretty bleak for North Carolina…

Some random observations at lunchtime

So far Ernesto hasn’t been that bad of a storm. Perhaps I would have been better off sleeping in. :P But as Warren Peper said just a few minutes ago: “It’s not here yet” — and if the radar imagery is any indication, he’s right:

1225p_radar_0831.png

Another thing that really catches my eye are the radar-estimated 36-50 knot winds in upper Berkeley and Charleston counties:

1225p_velocity_0831.png

Also, please take notice of those winds in the bands offshore, which will probably reach the coast within the hour.

In other news, the reaction to Ernesto is that of being…well…completely underwhelmed. See Geoff and his friend Stewart for their reaction to Ernesto.

Please keep an eye on the backup blog as I am continuing to have problems posting here.

11AM: 60 MPH Ernesto

Ernesto is now a 60 MPH tropical storm moving north-northeast at 15 MPH. They are once again leaving the possibility open for the storm to strengthen into a hurricane, and have posted hurricane watches from South Santee River northward to Cape Lookout.

The track takes the center right over the North and South Carolina border. One thing worth noting is that Charleston is removed from the cone of uncertainty as a landfall point. This is generally a Good Thing. Here’s the map:

11am0831.gif

I’m going to keep an eye on the radar though — it seems like there was a recent wobble to the left, but it’s tough to tell sometimes.

Sorry about the slowness. Please be patient. If things get too much slower here, please view http://jaredwsmith.wordpress.com — I’m kind of glad I got that account now. That will work as a good “backup blog” so to speak.

8AM: Pressure dropping

The 8AM advisory is reporting that Ernesto’s gotten a bit stronger. Winds are now 55 MPH, and the central pressure has dropped to 29.41″ of mercury. All indicators are that it continues to get better organized and gain a little more strength as it prepares for landfall. The official movement is to the north at 15 MPH, but there have been small jogs to the east that have thrown the track to the right all morning. The center now sits about 170 miles south of Charleston.

It’s still a bit windy and rainy around here, but my street isn’t even underwater yet — that’s generally a good thing. I’m gonna step outside in a few to take an updated cloud observation, but the rain hasn’t been that bad at all through the whole storm so far. This will change, I’m sure, but so far so good.

I’m watching the Live 5 FutureTracker, and it seems their model still takes the center very close to Charleston. Interesting…

So far, it’s just a really gloomy, lousy day.

Well I sure as heck couldn’t wake up again at 5am, and that’s probably a sign I have a twinge of sanity left. It’s a tad soggy out but nothing out of the ordinary has been recorded. I’ve measured about 0.18″ of rain so far from the first outer band — yeah, that was it.

Seems like with every passing update, the further east the track gets pushed. Get a load of the 5am advisory:

5AM forecast track of Ernesto.  Courtesy NOAA

We’re now looking at a landfall just a hair below the border. Charleston is even less likely now to feel those tropical storm conditions. We’ll see if there are any tweaks at 8 and 11 but I must say that we are getting awful close to landfall. However, never ever ever rule out the ability of a tropical system to jog one way or the other — ten miles can make a big difference. Also, it’s worth noting that Ernesto’s a 50 MPH system now, and will probably intensify even further on the final leg of its journey.

See you guys sometime after 8. I may hop out and get milk. Haha.

2AM: Ernesto held at 40 MPH, track not changed

The 2AM intermediate advisory is out and holds Ernesto’s intensity at 40 MPH. The motion is north at 15.

Another round of light rain is coming on shore, with a nice bout of heavy rain right on its heels. I haven’t gotten any measurable rain yet, and the winds have been fairly light so far, up around 8 MPH at times but that’s about it.

I’m going to try and get a little sleep. See you guys shortly after 5 with the updated track.

The first heavy band is knocking on our door

I’ve been keeping an eye on the radar tonight and the first real heavy band of precipitation is knock-knock-knockin’ on Chucktown’s door:

1127_radar_0830.png

Looking at the radar estimated rainfall shows that this storm is putting out some water, at the rate of over two inches an hour in spots (the red areas). Those storms are headed to northern Charleston County/southern Georgetown County. Check out these radar estimated totals:

One hour rainfall totals

Intense stuff…conditions should start to go downhill in the next hour or two. Stay tuned!