Wow, get a load of Florence these days…
Looks like she’ll become a hurricane about two days later than first predicted, and then it’s just not looking good for Bermuda at all — a thrashing of the right side of the eyewall of a Category 2 or maybe even 3 hurricane…ouch.
Tropical Storm Florence hasn’t changed much over the last couple days, remaining as a 50 MPH tropical storm as it battles wind shear and other factors inhibiting it. As the discussion states, predicting Florence’s intensity is going to be a mighty tough endeavor, and there’s a lot of uncertainty. Strengthening to a hurricane is still built into the forecast, though.
Here’s the map:
Note that Bermuda may be in big trouble with this current track, as it passes the center just to the left of the island, putting it squarely in the path of the worst part of the storm. Just how bad the worst part of the storm is remains to be seen, but as evidenced by the map they are still expecting a hurricane of varying intensity at the time of Bermuda landfall.
Florence hasn’t done much in the last 12 hours or so. Winds are hanging tough at 45 MPH, and it’s continuing that west-northwest movement.
While there is a cubic crap-ton of uncertainty still with the track of this storm, the official forecast is favoring a recurvature out to sea, which is good news:
A look at the computer models is definitely encouraging, with all of them turning Florence poleward in the next several days. Bermuda may catch a little bit of heat, but we’ll see.
As always, keep an eye on the Hurricane Center. The next advisory and track is out at 11.
No, not THAT Florence…Tropical Storm Florence, the former Tropical Depression Six. From the discussion:
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY
LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS
BASED ON WIND DATA FROM 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT AND 05/1002 SSMI
OVERPASSES THAT REVEALED LARGE PATCHES OF 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER
WINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT…BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS.
Here’s the obligatory tracking map:
So far it seems to be zeroed in…right to Charleston. But, the bend at the end of the track is encouraging, as that could indicate a recurvature. However, it’s still too far out to start any real panic. Just be sure to keep an eye on it. :)