Note: This is an archived post about Invest 96 in July 2008. For current information about Invest 96 in the 2010 tropical season, please see Weather Underground.
There’s a low pressure system spinning off the coast of Florida that’s been giving us a really nice northeasterly flow for the last couple days. It’s spun some isolated, short-lived showers onto the coast, too. It’s got quite a well-defined circulation, and I got several e-mails today asking me why the Hurricane Center hadn’t classified it as an area for investigation (aka an Invest). Well, folks, it is now — the Hurricane Center’s tabbed it as Invest 96. It’s not terribly well-organized considering proximity to land, but the blowup of convection on the eastern side of the storm and the environment it’s in warrant an extra eye from the Hurricane Center. The models don’t seem to give it much of a chance to get it together, but it’s early yet and it’s worth watching. It could spin up into a depression in the next few days. It will probably bring beneficial rains to the coast and a little wind, but not much else. In the meantime, despite the intermittent showers it spins onshore, it’s done a lot to keep temperatures much more bearable than normal for July. There’s little haze, and the clouds have been really vivid and hauling butt, making for some fun sky-watching and photography (which I will upload to Flickr once I get a decent set).
More to come from this as things develop.
From the National Weather Service:
… Driest November on record for the Charleston International
Airport and downtown Charleston…
The total precipitation for the month of November at the Charleston
International Airport was 0.03 inches. This was the driest November
on record for the station. The previous driest November occurred in
1998 when 0.16 inches of precipitation fell. Records for the
Charleston International Airport have been kept since 1930.
No precipitation fell during the month of November in downtown
Charleston. This is the driest November on record and the first time
in history that no precipitation was recored during the month.
The previous driest November occurred in 1996 when 0.21 inches of
precipitation fell. Records for downtown Charleston have been kept
Rumor has it there IS a slight rain chance for tomorrow, but the majority of the action will be farther up the Eastern seaboard.
Oh, and hurricane season is officially over. We barely got even any tropical rain this time around. It’s not good…
It’s not a depression, yet (but it’s damn close), but Invest 99L, spinning around in the Atlantic, is quite likely to become at least a tropical storm if not a Category 2 hurricane, according to Weather Underground’s Dr. Jeff Masters.
Taking a look at the computer models shows that there is at least one set of guidance that basically brings whatever this thing would become over Charleston. These models, of course, are preliminary. However, it’d be a good idea to begin thinking about what to do in a hurricane.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this thing classified at least as a tropical depression by 11PM. We shall see…keep alert!
So two days ago, Felix was just a disorganized mess near the Windward Islands, stirring up some trouble. It organized into Tropical Depression Six, and then got its name about 12 hours later. Since then, it has exploded into a storm way beyond any forecast — a Category 5 storm packing 165 MPH winds. At first, I thought about calling it Dean Lite because of its similar trajectory and formation location, but this one wants to upstage Dean in a very nasty way. Don’t be surprised to see it pack 175 MPH winds at its peak before it peters out — it seems like the sky’s the limit for this storm.
You know a hurricane is strong when you see this in the storm discussion (and you don’t see this often):
BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED…THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.
If it’s too hairy for a hurricane hunter aircraft, you know it’s a beast.
It looks like things are really going to take off here in the next couple weeks. It’s possible that the area of disturbed weather that was affecting us this weekend could become tropical in nature and form into something, too. Keep an eye to the seas…
Tropical Storm Barry’s remnants, currently buffeting Charleston with a surprisingly rough dose of wind and rain, have impressed me. I went to Norm’s to grab my usual Italian Combo, fully loaded, and encountered some real impressive rain and wind. Ashley is underwater, and Ogier was headed that way (that was a couple hours or so ago). I even lost power briefly at the house. Ale lost power at his place in Mt. P and then was almost blown off one of the bridges on 526 — sounds like that wind is coming in real well, around 35 to 45 miles per hour. There’s a pretty rough pressure gradient forming that’s bringing a lot of the wind (no, it’s not Barry itself, per se).
Barry’s center of low pressure is pretty deep and seems to be pretty close. My weather station is reporting a barometric pressure of 29.52″. It was as low as 29.50″ at one point. These readings are from the console because I’m having some server trouble right now, so there’s currently no reporting to Weather Underground. I’m currently working on this. I’ve also had little luck with the rain reporting today — the wind blew the rain gauge off kilter earlier, so it wasn’t getting much of a reading at all.
Be careful out there — don’t get flooded out, and don’t get blown over!
This rainstorm has a name — Subtropical Storm Andrea. It’s packing 45 MPH winds and is going to come in between Florida and southern SC on Thursday. Dr. Jeff Masters is on it, and pretty excited.
Andrea’s brought some impressive gusts upwards of 23 mph at my house, which is pretty intense considering all the things that break the wind before it reaches the anemometer. Whew.
Jim Cantore was on Folly Beach yesterday, BTW. I wonder if The Weather Channel will fire up their Storm Alert coverage — after all, it is a named storm now. ;)
NOAA today confirmed what many, including myself, had suspected as the root of the unexpectedly (and thankfully) dormant 2006 hurricane season — yep, blame it on El NiÃ±o! The warming of the Pacific lent a hand to pretty quiet hurricane seasons in the mid-to-late ’90s and is having a similar effect this year. NOAA forecasters expect this El NiÃ±o to last into 2007 and possibly beyond.
I haven’t blogged much about the tropics in the last few days. Florence has since brushed by Bermuda as a Cat 1 and dissipated, but there are a couple things out there, such as Hurricane Gordon (harmlessly turning out to sea) and Tropical Depression Eight. Eight interests me greatly. While Dr. Masters is bullish on TD 8 turning away from the U.S., my interpretation of the history of storms forming between the 20th and 25th parallels suggests that this is one that definitely bears watching over the next week or so. Be sure to read Dr. Masters’s blog; he’s got a great tidbit on new technology called the driftsonde that they’re using off the coast of Africa to collect data from within these disturbances that haven’t been able to be sampled previously. Very cool, especially for you hurricane/weather buffs out there.
What about locally? There’s a cold front on the way through with a low that’s going to come pretty close. My barometer has been in freefall all day, as well as the rain off and on, and I anticipate that will continue, though all indications are that this weekend will be exceedingly beautiful with a nice fresh airmass in place. The weather’s been awful seasonable these days, no? It sure has felt like Fall. :)
Looks like a stalled front is kicking up a little tropical action. twc_aficionados moderator cieldumort reports that recon is headed to the storm (may actually be there by now) and is having a look to see if something’s flaring up.
Could be vedddy interesting…
The National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Three in the Atlantic Ocean.
AT 1100 PM AST…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES…260 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
The official track takes the storm over the northernmost Leeward Islands, so as can be expected with a depression this close to becoming a named storm (Chris, if/when it is named), tropical storm watches were issued accordingly. NHC does not anticipate much strengthening with this system and doesn’t give the system much of a chance beyond 36 hours due to very unfavorable upper air conditions, which is most definitely a good thing! If the storm holds together, it, in some form (hopefully as a weak wave) will likely impact southern Florida by this weekend.
Welcome to August folks. It’s all downhill from here. ;)
A big tip of the hat to everyone at the twc_aficionados LiveJournal community for the heads-up on this.
The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season saw the formation of its second named storm today, Tropical Storm Beryl. The computer models are pretty unanimous in taking it north and then northeastward in about 36 hours or so. However, the National Hurricane Center is playing it safe and has posted a tropical storm watch for the N.C. coast. I’m not seeing it being much of a threat to land, nor getting to be notably powerful either, though surfers will enjoy the waves. :)
Lots going on these days. Continue reading