Tag Archives: model runs

Hanna the Headache

There’s a lot of eyes on Hurricane Gustav this weekend, and rightfully so — it’s become a Category 3, 125 MPH beast, and the forecast just does not look good for Texas and Louisiana around, unfortunately, New Orleans. Gustav appears to be in position to make this Labor Day weekend a very memorable one for all the wrong reasons. Here’s hoping folks are heeding the call to leave the coast early; the last thing anybody wants to see is a duplication of the tragedy of Katrina three years ago yesterday.

Here in Charleston, we may have a tropical issue of our own to deal with by the end of next week. I’ve been spending a showery morning in West Ashley playing with computer model runs for Tropical Storm Hanna and the end result has been a little heightened concern for our neck of the woods. Continue reading

Hurricane Hunters headed into 92L

The National Hurricane Center reports that Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently investigating Invest 92. NHC’s boosted the chances of development in that area of disturbed weather to over 50%. Despite its disorganization, I’ve seen lesser storms classified as tropical depressions, and I think this one will be classified before the day is out. More later.

A quickie 92L update

The morning models are basically unanimous now on recurving Invest 92 northward. Roughly half the models are split on where it recurves; half of them are recurving it before the Bahamas, and half of them are recurving it afterward (with a couple stragglers taking it into the Gulf of Mexico; I’m counting this as an anomaly and not paying much attention to them right now). If it recurves it after the Bahamas, we definitely have a much better chance of feeling the effects in Charleston.

It’s still early yet, but it’s been interesting to see how this situation has been developing. If you look at the different frames on the Colorado State model site, you can see the earlier runs and the progression…pretty neat.

Continue to keep an eye out…

Invest 92L: A tropical wave for us to watch closely

It’s fitting that as we approach the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season that we have a potential storm to contend with. Meet Invest 92, a tropical wave meandering northeast of the Leeward Islands chugging along to the west at 12 MPH. It’s really, really still too early to say, but we might be contending with this one in about a week and a half or so. Continue reading