The National Weather Service has a “potentially dangerous situation” pegged for us tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning…
…Severe weather possible Thursday into Thursday night…
A strengthening low pressure system over the Central Plains in
concert with a potent upper level disturbance will work together
to create a highly dynamic and moderately unstable airmass over
the region Thursday. This airmass will remain in place through
Thursday night into Friday morning as the warm front associated
with this system moves north over the area and the respective cold
front moves across the Gulf Coast states.
As this large system shifts east…conditions will become
favorable for the development of severe weather across southeast
Georgia and southeast South Carolina Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread
south to north across the coastal plain tomorrow with the timing
of the severe threat starting early afternoon in southeast Georgia
and mid afternoon in southeast South Carolina. The main hazards
will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes for late Thursday
and Thursday night. A possible second round of thunderstorms may
occur Friday morning around daybreak with the actual passage of
the cold front…and this may produce gusty and damaging winds.
Sure seems very springlike to me, and we’re still a month away from the official start. Guess all those street-level modifications I made to my GRLevelX installation will begin to pay off pretty much immediately, huh?
Keep an eye to the sky as the day progresses into tonight; we’ve got one heck of a cold front headed in with strong winds associated with it (35-40 mph winds are expected) along with some severe thunderstorms. The main threat with the severe thunderstorms is damaging winds. Check out the wind advisory and the Special Weather Statement about the impending excitement tonight…
UPDATE: Seems the NWS is using unusually strong language, categorizing this as a “significant severe weather event” and stating it is a “potentially dangerous situation.” Here’s the latest statement:
1143 am EST Wed Nov 15 2006
…Significant severe weather event possible tonight…
A strong storm system will move from the Tennessee Valley to the
eastern Great Lakes region tonight through Thursday. This will
allow a strong cold front to push through southern South Carolina
and southeast Georgia late tonight or early Thursday morning.
Very strong winds just above the surface will develop in advance
of the cold front this evening and will continue overnight. As the
system approaches the area…widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop…mainly after midnight. Although the
amount of instability remains in question…wind fields are quite
supportive of severe weather…and the stronger cells that develop
will allow the stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface.
Aside from the damaging wind hazard…strong low level wind shear
will also result in a chance for isolated tornadoes across the
At this time…it appears the best chance for severe weather will
be from midnight through mid-morning Thursday. Because winds will
be so strong just above the surface…intense rain showers
producing absolutely no lightning will be capable of producing
damaging winds at the surface as well. Therefore…wind gusts
greater than 58 mph will be possible with little or no warning.
This is a potentially dangerous situation. Stay tuned to NOAA
Weather Radio all hazards…TV or your local news source for the
latest statements from the National Weather Service. Be sure to
keep your NOAA Weather Radio in alert Mode at all times.
Very, very interesting…apparently NWS Charleston is even conducting a briefing for broadcast meteorologists in Charleston and Savannah at 4 today. Might be a good idea to keep an eye on Brian Goode’s blog today, as things could get quite nasty tonight.